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Die Entscheidungsrelevanz von Managementprognosen

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Springer Nature
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9783658059057
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Aktienkurse gelten als reprsentativ fr den wahren Wert von Unternehmen, da sie der aggregierten Markterwartung bezglich aller zuknftigen Renditen entsprechen. So plausibel dieser Zusammenhang in der Theorie ist, so komplex und undurchsichtig knnen die Mechanismen der Preisbildung in der Realitt erscheinen, zumal die Markterwartung per se nicht explizit messbar ist. Thilo Helpenstein leistet einen Erklrungsbeitrag zum besseren Verstndnis der Erwartungsbildung des Marktes sowie dessen Reaktion bei Nichterfllung von Erwartungen. Er verwendet regulierte Managmentprognosen als innovatives Surrogat der Markterwartung und analysiert die Wirkung von Ergebnisberraschungen unter Bercksichtigung verhaltenskonomischer Erkenntnisse. Der Autor zeigt auf, wie Kapitalmarktteilnehmer auf Managementprognosen reagieren und welche Implikationen sich hieraus fr Manager, Anleger und Regulatoren ableiten lassen.

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