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In der Makrokonomie spielen Markterwartungen eine zentrale Rolle bei der Erklrung von Wechselkursen. Dabei werden einzelne strukturelle Beziehungen wie die Gltigkeit der ungedeckten Zinsparitt vorausgesetzt, deren Gltigkeit in der Empirie deutlich widerlegt ist. Nicole van de Locht untersucht mit Hilfe der risikoneutralen Dichtefunktion, ob ein Peso-Problem die empirisch beobachtete Abweichung von der ungedeckten Zinsparitt beim US-Dollar/Euro-Wechselkurs erklren kann. Auerdem analysiert die Autorin verschiedene statistische Eigenschaften der risikoneutralen Dichtefunktion wie bspw. die Prognosefhigkeit im Vergleich zu bisher hufig verwendeten Prognosemodellen.
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