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Bayessche Netze in der Rechtsprechung
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Product Details
Paola Janen formuliert richterliche berzeugungsbildung als subjektives statistisches Entscheidungsproblem und bezieht sich damit auf eine methodische Schnittstelle zwischen Statistik und Jurisprudenz. Die Anwendung der bayesschen Statistik stellt hierbei die logische Konsistenz der Informationsverwertung und der Entscheidungsfindung sicher. Sie erfordert aber die Festlegung von a-priori-Wahrscheinlichkeiten, ber die ein intersubjektiver Konsens mglicherweise nicht hergestellt werden kann. Sensitivittsanalysen knnen dieses Problem abmildern. Die Autorin illustriert diese Sachverhalte anhand des Strafprozesses gegen den ehemaligen Wettermoderator Jrg Kachelmann, indem sie die Beweislage als bayessches Netz darstellt und auswertet.
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