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Ein probabilistisches Bevlkerungsprognosemodell
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Bevlkerungsprognosen haben eine weitreichende Bedeutung fr die zuknftige Gestaltung diverser gesellschaftlicher Lebensbereiche, sodass die fortlaufende Verbesserung ihrer Methodik unabdingbar ist. Zudem zeigt die berprfung vergangener Bevlkerungsprognosen, dass deren Genauigkeit weder durch die bessere Datenqualitt noch durch die bislang verbesserte Methodik wesentlich gesteigert werden konnte. Aus diesem Grund entwickelt Christina Bohk das Probabilistic Population Projection Model (PPPM) zur Durchfhrung probabilistischer Bevlkerungsprognosen theoretisch, implementiert es und wendet es beispielhaft in einer Prognose fr die Bevlkerung Deutschlands von 2007 bis 2050 an.
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