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Regimezerfall durch strategisches Steuerungsversagen

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Springer Nature
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N/A
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9783658465612
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Autokraten setzen mit Repression, Legitimation und Kooptation drei Strategien ein, um ihre Regime zu stabilisieren. Der Einsatz dieser Strategien ist jedoch mit einem zentralen Dilemma verbunden: Im Kontext bestimmter Rahmenbedingungen knnen diese Strategien ambivalent wirken und Regimezerfall bedingen. Davon ausgehend wird die These vom strategischen Steuerungsversagen aufgestellt. Die Untersuchung ist als wirkungsorientierte Evaluationsstudie angelegt und beantwortet die Frage, wann autokratische Stabilisierungsstrategien Regimezerfall bedingen. In drei Schritten werden Konstellationen von Strategien und Rahmenbedingungen mittels QCA-Analysen anhand berdauernder und zerfallener autokratischer Regime im Zeitraum von 1980-2010 untersucht. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse wird ein kombiniertes Rauten- und Kausalpfadmodell autokratischen Regimezerfalls entwickelt. Als Heuristik hat das Modell einen praktischen Mehrwert fr sicherheitspolitische Analysen und Fragestellungen ber die Stabilitt von Autokratien der Gegenwart.

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